Ust Global Holiday Calendar 2023
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Municipals were weak elsewhere ahead of the holiday weekend as traders continued to weigh on inflation, outpacing US Treasury sales and double-digit gains in yields. The continent is over in red.
Ust Global Holiday Calendar 2023
Triple-A muni yields fell a basis point, while UST yields rose 11 to 14 basis points, according to the index. For 30, Refinitiv MMD reported at 9:00 p.m. Read it. Data services five at 80%, 10 at 89% and 30 at 97% in 2 hours. Read it.
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From last week, the new schedule issuance is $4.804 billion with $3.182 billion in contracts and $1.622 billion in competitive bonds. The thirty-day supply appears to be over $13 billion.

The Environmental Calendar uses $854 million in tax-free grants from the Iowa State Department of Finance for Midwest disaster areas. Other notable deals include $272 million in general financial aid, $266 million in student loans and loans from the New Jersey Higher Education Student Assistance Agency, and $205 million in student loan repayment. Unlimited school construction tax dollars from the Frisco, Texas Independent School District.
The City and County of Denver, Colorado is expected to bring in $366 million for the three contracts, while the Virginia State School Board is expected to bring in $216,460 million from the competitive calendar.

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High volatility continues to cause uncertainty in financial services and market demand, with structural and price discovery limitations as well as the overall strength of muni assets, the report said.Jeff Lipton, CEO. by Oppenheimer Inc. Credit research.
Long term stability and confidence in the market is needed to change direction and start a good muni tour, he said. When this happens, the unusual behavior of the municipal market reappears, there is no consensus on the demand for products, ie the credit structure and distribution.

"However, we can expect the supply to continue for the time being, but we still think that climate change may start to accelerate with the speed of negative tides," he said.
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Lipton said the favorable headwinds in the first quarter of munis, bad credit conditions and the weather led to the disappointing rate.

"Different income taxes are stronger, reserves and emergency funds are strengthened, debt management systems are improved, and reporting standards are greatly improved," Lipton said.
He noted that the increase in rates will exceed the number of reductions, adding that unusual government activity for local and state governments and companies is an important part of the history of muni loans. These funds are not distributed properly, and the implementation of the infrastructure fund is years away.

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Munis were hit by a sharp sell-off in the UST market as the Fed responded to inflation by pledging to raise interest rates as needed to stabilize inflation. While Lipton believes munis will follow UST's lead, the underperformance seems counterintuitive as munis largely drive bond yield growth. "We expect the price to be high and UST's security to help improve Munis' quarterly performance," Lipton said.
In the year Compared to the low interest rates and more prosperous environment that will define the municipal mortgage market in 2021, Lipton says there is a great opportunity to enter now.

Although spreads may have widened at the start of the year, given the slow first quarter, it will still be priced, he said, adding that given the current strength, the property's value is reasonable given the very cheap muni rating.
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"While it is difficult to determine the further pain the munis will face, we believe that the major bleeding is behind us and that cautious investors can take a market rally as the technicals get off the ground," he said.

Georgia 5s 2022 at 1.69% -1.68%. NY Dorm PIT 5s 2024 at 2.13% -2.10%. Maryland 5s 2025 at 2.27%-2.23% and 2.30% on Tuesday and 1.93%-1.97% on 4/1. California 5s 2025 to 2.28% -2.36% from 2.36% Wednesday. Georgia 5s 2025 to 2.17% from 2.20%-2.17% Wednesday.
Maryland 5s 2028 at 2.30%-2.36% from 2.32% Wednesday. District of Columbia 5s 2029 at 2.44%. North Carolina 5s 2030 at 2.60%-2.56%. Charleston, South Carolina 5s 2031 at 2.66% -2.64%

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2037 Washington 5s at 2.89% and 2.87% on Wednesday and 2.87%-2.86% on the first (Tuesday). California 5s 2037 at 2.88%-2.87% and 2.87% Monday and 2.77%-2.80% 4/6.
2040 NYC TFA 5s at 3.27%-3.30% vs 2.91%-2.92% in 4/4, 2.95% in 4/1 and 3.10% original (3/31). California 5s 2041 at 2.94% and 3.00% on Tuesday and 2.66% on 4/5.

LA DWP 5s 2047 at 3.10% and 3.08% on Wednesday. LA DWP 5s 2051 at 3.23% vs 3.09% on Monday. 2052 LA DWP 5s at 3.20% vs 3.05% on 4/6 and 3.04%-3.06% original (3/30).
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Refinitiv's MMD rate was unchanged at 1:00 AM. Read: one year at 1.77% and 2.03% for two years. Five years -22.22%, 10 years -46% and 30-year 2.81%.

ICE municipal yields are down by one to two basis points: 1.78% (+1) in 2023 and 2.07% (+2) in 2024. Five-year to 2.23% (+1), 10-year to 2.47% (+1) ), and 30-year yield was approximately 2.85% (+1).
Bloomberg lowers the BVAL benchmark: 1.76% (+1) in 2023 and 2.00% (+1) in 2024. Five-year at 2.24% (unch), 10-year at 2.47% (unch) and 30-year at 2.79% (unch) at 13:00.

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Two-year UST 2,449% (+11), three-year 2,684% (+11), five-year 2,790% (+14), seven-year 2,845% (+14), 10-year 2,830% (+ +13 ), the 20-year Treasury yielded 3.099% (+11), and the 30-year Treasury yielded 2.923% (+11) in 2 hours. Read it.
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said the economy could handle a second rate hike, while New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said the hike was "reasonable."

Among the numbers, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 65.7 in March from a preliminary reading of 59.4 in April, while inflation expectations remained positive.
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"The numbers have come back surprisingly because gas prices have come off their levels in March and the labor market is warming, so consumers are optimistic," said Edward Moya, market analyst at OANDA. "Inflation is expected to rise in the next 12 months, so staying at 5.4% was good and indicated that inflation may rise."

But gas and food prices will erode the savings that consumers built up during the pandemic, he said. Still, "they have to deal with price increases until the winter."
Wells Fargo Securities Chief Economist Tim Quinlan and Economic Analyst Sarah Kotsakis said, "While there are fears that a recession may be imminent, someone forgot to tell the consumer." "Inflation continues to be a major challenge to consumer spending, but the high rate of interest required to address this issue will be a tough pill to swallow."

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As inflation continues, Quinlan said, "It will probably stop being negative, and that means spending less money."
Retail trade data was also released, showing a 0.5% increase in March after a 0.8% increase in February, indicating that consumers remained strong in the first quarter and continued to spend despite inflation. Grant Thornton and Diane Swank. "Consumer-based segmentation is beginning to show its return to gasoline and discount stores."

But Mickey Levy, chief US, US and Asia economist at Bernberg Capital Markets, said: "Expanding inflation and pump prices have driven real estate sales last month, down 0.7% from last March.
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"Accelerating inflation has reduced purchasing power and incomes are likely to decline for seven consecutive months," he said. Households manage to use savings and credit when necessary, but "the data show that real and nominal consumption growth is slowing."

Initial jobless claims fell to 1.475 million in the week ended April 9 from 167,000 a week earlier and to 1.523 million last week in the week ended April 2. Despite the gains, demand is at a low level not seen in decades, reflecting a tight labor market.
Iowa Financial Corp. (BA1/BBB-/BB+/) on Thursday bought $854.325 million of tax-exempt, tax-exempt Iowa fertilizer company Midwest Risk Income Company, Series 2022, Series 2050, Term 2050 .and 2050 shares of Citigroup Global. Markets.

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Texas (Aaa/AAA/AAA/) on Wednesday bought $272,170 million of public debt, $100,325 million of water bond funds, Series 2022A, Series 2023 -2046; $140,615 million in water recovery grants, series 2022B, series 2023-2041; $13,210 million in grant-in-aid, series 2022C, series 2023-2032; and $18,020 million in water assistance refundable tax credits, Series 2022D, Series 2023-2035. Ramirez
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